Macroeconomic Consequences of Ageing and Directed Technological Change. BertelsmannStiftung Studies

Macroeconomic Consequences of Ageing and Directed Technological Change Demographic projections foresee a pronounced population ageing process in the coming decades. The associated changes in quantity and quality of labour will have an impact on the long-term economic outlook. This study discusses economic implications of current demographic projections for a set of large industrialized economies, which include the largest member states of the EU, the USA and Japan, as well as Austria as an example of a small open economy. The focus of the study is the interplay between demographic and technological trends. The study extends the methodology of the European Commission’s Ageing Report by considering the effects of size and composition of the working-age population on the productivity growth and productivity effect of the ICT-intensity as a measure of directed technological change

Venture capital in bank - and market - based economies

The determinants of venture capital investment have attracted a significant amount of attention from both academics and policymakers. We use a version of the Keuschnigg-Nielsen model for venture-capital-financed projects to condition our analysis on a reasonable set of exogenous variables but we focus on one determinant : financial market structure. The type of financial market structure (bank -or market-based) contributes substantially to explaining differences among countries with respect to the extent of venture capital investments in the initial business stages. We will use the cross country and time series variation from a panel of 19 industrial countries to support the hypothesis that venture capital thrives within market-based financial systems and is confined to an ancillary role in bank-based systems.Venture capital, financial market structure, local stock markets, panel data.

Export Credit Guarantees and Export Performance: Evidence from Austrian Firm-level Data

This paper provides an economic assessment of export credit guarantee commitments by the Austrian export credit agency, using firm-level data on a cross-section of 178 Austrian exporting firms for the year 2008. In a first step, we estimate the relative importance of various determinants of export guarantee usage. Results suggest that the most crucial determinants are: firm size, whether or not the firm is part of a multinational enterprise, exposure to revenue risk, and R&D intensity. In a second step, we investigate the effects of export guarantees on export performance. Identification is achieved by using as instruments the exogenous determinants of export guarantee usage identified in the first step. We find that there are economically and statistically significant effects of export credit guarantee usage on firm-specific export performance ranging from some 80 to 100 percent compared with the control group of non-users

Measuring complementarity in financial systems

URL des Documents de travail : http://centredeconomiesorbonne.univ-paris1.fr/bandeau-haut/documents-de-travail/ ED-EPSDocuments de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2012.39 - ISSN : 1955-611XThe distinction between bank and market based economies has a long tradition in applied macroeconomics. The two types differ not only in the level of financial activity channeled through the stock market and private banking, but also in their institutional frameworks. We challenge this traditional distinction between the two types of financial architecture. We develop an index that accounts for complementarity between financial markets and banking systems that has been hypothesized by Sylla (1998) and Song and Thakor (2010). The theoretical foundation of our empirical approach is the general equilibrium framework by Freixas and Rochet (1997). We validate the proposed index and the underlying theory of complementary using a random coefficient and a Generalized estimating equations (GEE).Il existe une longue tradition en macroéconomie appliquée sur la distinction entre les économies basées sur les banques et celles sur les marchés. Ces deux types d'économies ne diffèrent pas seulement sur leur niveau d'activité sur le marché financier et les banques mais aussi avec leurs différences institutionnelles. Nous remettons en question cette distinction entre les deux types d'architecture financière. Pour cela, nous utilisons un index qui prend en compte la complémentarité entre les marchés et les banques (hypothèse de Sylla et de Song (1998) et Thakor (2010)). Le modèle théorique de notre approche empirique est l'équilibre général de Freixas et Rochas (1997). Nous validons l'index proposé et la théorie sous jacente en utilisant les modèles économétriques appelés "random coefficient" et "Generalized estimating equations (GEE)"

Venture capital in bank - and market - based economies

URL des Documents de travail : http://centredeconomiesorbonne.univ-paris1.fr/bandeau-haut/documents-de-travail/Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2011.25 - ISSN : 1955-611XThe determinants of venture capital investment have attracted a significant amount of attention from both academics and policymakers. We use a version of the Keuschnigg-Nielsen model for venture-capital-financed projects to condition our analysis on a reasonable set of exogenous variables but we focus on one determinant : financial market structure. The type of financial market structure (bank -or market-based) contributes substantially to explaining differences among countries with respect to the extent of venture capital investments in the initial business stages. We will use the cross country and time series variation from a panel of 19 industrial countries to support the hypothesis that venture capital thrives within market-based financial systems and is confined to an ancillary role in bank-based systems.Les déterminants du capital risque attirent l'attention des politiques comme des scientifiques. Nous utilisons un modèle de Keuschnigg et Nielsen pour guider le choix de nos variables exogènes même si nous concentrons notre analyse sur un seul déterminant : la structure financière. Le type de structure financière (basée sur les banques ou sur les marchés) contribue de manière substantielle à expliquer les différences selon les pays des premières phases d'investissement en capital risque. Nous utilisons un échantillon de 19 pays pour appuyer l'hypothèse que le capital risque prospère dans les économies basées sur les marchés alors qu'il est confiné dans un rôle secondaire dans les économies basées sur les banques

Employment and Growth in an Aging Society. A Simulation Study for Austria

In this study we use a long run macroeconomic model for Austria to simulate the effects of aging on employment, output growth, and the solvency of the social security system. By disaggregating the population into six age cohorts and modelling sex specific participation rates for each cohort, we are able to account for the future demographic trends. Apart from a baseline scenario, we perform three alternative simulations that highlight the effects of aging from different perspectives. These include (1) purely demographic developments, (2) increasing labour market imperfections, and (3) higher economic growth due to a productivity shock.Economic growth, Aging, Austria

Macroeconomic effects of demographic aging: Impact on productivity growth and macroeconomic variables in selected industrialized countries. Potential gains offered by labor-saving technological progress Bertelsmann Stiftung Focus Paper April 2020.

Within most developed industrialized countries, demographic change means that populations are shrinking and growing older. This expected shift in population structure, especially the aging and shrinking of the working-age population, has significant consequences for an economy’s macroeconomic development. Areas affected include the country’s aggregate productivity, savings and investment rates, price-level trends, gross domestic product (both absolute and per capita) and current account balance. This focus paper outlines the most important findings of a comprehensive study conducted by the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO) on behalf of the Bertelsmann Stiftung (see also Bertelsmann Stiftung 2019). The study analyzes the influence of expected demographic developments on key macroeconomic variables in seven selected industrialized countries (Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain and the United States). The calculations performed for the simulation run through the year 2050. Particular attention is given to determining the relationship between demographic aging and technological progress. It emerges here that some of the negative effects of demographic aging on the average level of gross domestic product per capita (GDP per capita) can be mitigated by labor-saving technological progress that is driven by expectations of demographic aging, insofar as more investment in the future is focused on automation and digitalization. This focus paper summarizes important key findings of our study “Macroeconomic consequences of ageing and directed technological change.” In Chapter 2, we sketch key interdependencies that illustrate how a change in a society’s age structure influences its macroeconomic development. Following the description of these theoretically expected relationships, Chapter 3 presents the results of regression analyses that empirically estimate these relationships on the basis of past developments. Chapter 4 initially presents the main findings of the population projections for all seven industrialized countries under examination. It then details some of the results of the macroeconomic simulation calculations, in which the empirically estimated effects of a changed age structure from Chapter 2 are combined with current population projections through 2050. For the purposes of clarity, the comparisons will focus on Germany, Japan and the United States. These simulations show how demographic aging can be expected to change key macroeconomic variables in the three countries through 2050, and how GDP (absolute and per capita) will develop in all seven industrialized countries. Finally, we look at the potential for gain offered by labor-saving technological progress

Transformation towards Sustainable Business Models in Production: A Case Study of a 3D Printer Manufacturer

A global transformation from Industry 4.0 towards Industry 5.0 will soon take place. Such transformations are intrinsic to human and sustainable value creation. An increasing number of companies, recognising this imminent trend, will need to transform their current classical, solely profit-oriented business models into sustainable business models that also target human, social, and environmental aspects. Various frameworks already exist that support the design of sustainable business models. Practical applications of these frameworks and research on the transformation process in the production domain, which places a special focus on small and medium enterprises, is still scarce. This paper presents the first results from a sustainable business model transformation project on a European SME, which produces 3D printers. The research method applies a single case study design. The study was based on publicly available information and qualitative data, obtained through interviews and workshops carried out on an executive management level